Doubts have emerged over whether the government’s flagship 2030 clean power target can be met on time, after the UK boss of RWE admitted that several newly awarded offshore wind projects are unlikely to be operational by the end of the decade.
The German energy group was the biggest winner in the government’s latest offshore wind subsidy auction, securing five of the six contracts awarded. Ministers hailed the outcome as a major step towards delivering Ed Miliband’s ambition of a near-fully decarbonised power system by 2030.
However, speaking after the auction, Tom Glover, RWE’s UK chief executive, said it was unrealistic to expect all five projects, with a combined capacity of 6.9 gigawatts, to be generating power by that deadline.
Asked directly whether the projects would be online by 2030, Glover said: “Probably not.”
Three of the five RWE projects are contracted to begin operations in the 2030–31 financial year, making delivery before the end of 2030 “difficult”, he said. Two of the largest schemes, located at Dogger Bank off the east coast of England, are still awaiting planning consent, with a decision recently delayed until the end of April.
Grid access is another constraint. The Dogger Bank projects are not currently scheduled to receive grid connections until October 2030, after which further commissioning time would be required before electricity could flow into the system.
Glover stressed that the precise timing should not overshadow the scale of the investment involved. “This is more than £20 billion of investment in UK infrastructure,” he said. “We shouldn’t be overly negative about whether delivery is a couple of months late.”
His comments contrast with the government’s more confident assessment. Chris Stark, head of mission control for the clean power programme, said the auction had secured almost 8.5 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity expected to be operating by 2030, describing it as “critical” to meeting the target.
The government aims for at least 95 per cent of electricity generation to come from clean sources by 2030, up from around 74 per cent in 2024. Offshore wind is central to that plan, with a target of at least 43 gigawatts of installed capacity by the end of the decade. Officials believe the latest auction would lift operational capacity to around 36 gigawatts by 2030, with further rounds still to come.
Yet the auction’s results have also highlighted broader structural challenges facing the sector, including planning delays, grid connection bottlenecks and the long lead times required for major offshore developments.
The only non-RWE project awarded a contract was the first phase of SSE’s Berwick Bank wind farm in the outer Firth of Forth, which is also not scheduled to begin generation until 2030–31, adding to concerns about delivery timelines.
RWE, already one of the UK’s largest power generators, expects total capital expenditure on its five projects to exceed £20 billion, shared with partners including KKR, which is taking a 50 per cent stake in the Norfolk projects, and Masdar, which owns 49 per cent of the Dogger Bank schemes. Other partners include Stadtwerke München and Siemens.
Glover said RWE was targeting around 50 per cent UK content across the lifetime of the projects, underlining their significance not just for decarbonisation but also for industrial investment and supply chains.
While ministers remain upbeat, the comments from RWE underline a growing tension between political targets and the practical realities of delivering complex energy infrastructure at pace.
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Offshore wind delays raise questions over Labour’s 2030 clean power target