For decades, Americans have been lectured, pressured, and in many cases coerced into getting annual flu shots under the promise that “the science is settled” and that vaccination is an unquestionable public good.
But a growing body of research is blowing that narrative apart, and the latest data are nothing short of explosive.
A new study from the prestigious Cleveland Clinic has found that the 2024-2025 flu shot not only failed to protect people but also increased their risk of contracting the flu.
The study, published as a preprint on medRxiv and led by Dr. Nabin K. Shrestha and colleagues from the Departments of Infectious Diseases, Infection Prevention, and Quantitative Health Sciences, tracked 53,402 Cleveland Clinic employees across Ohio during the 2024–2025 respiratory viral season, which began on October 1, 2024.
By the end of the 25-week observation period (ending March 26, 2025), 82.1% of the cohort (43,857 individuals) had been vaccinated, primarily with the trivalent inactivated vaccine.
A total of 1,079 employees (2.02%) tested positive for influenza, with 98.8% being influenza A cases.
Using a time-dependent analysis (treating vaccination as a variable that changes over time), the researchers calculated a vaccine effectiveness of -26.9% (95% CI: -51.0% to -6.6%). This means vaccinated individuals had a 27% higher hazard ratio (HR 1.27) for contracting influenza compared to unvaccinated ones, after adjusting for factors like age, sex, job type (e.g., clinical nursing), and work location.
The study addressed potential biases by examining testing rates. Vaccinated employees were more likely to get tested, but the proportion of positive tests was similar between groups, suggesting the higher infection rate wasn’t due to testing differences but actual increased susceptibility.
A Simon-Makuch plot showed that early in the season, infection rates were similar, but they rose more rapidly among the vaccinated over time.
The study population was relatively young (mean age 42) and healthy, with 75% female and about 20% in clinical nursing roles.
The authors concluded: “Among 53402 working-aged Cleveland Clinic employees, we were unable to find a protective influence of influenza vaccination during the 2024-2025 respiratory viral season and found a significantly higher risk of influenza with vaccination when influenza activity was high.“
For the full study, check out the medRxiv preprint here: Effectiveness of the Influenza Vaccine During the 2024-2025 Respiratory Viral Season.
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