China was involved in two major confrontations in the South China Sea during October, one with Australia’s air force and another with the Philippines, while also conducting joint military exercises with Malaysia to expand its regional influence. These incidents underscore China’s dual strategy of maintaining both pressure and selective diplomatic engagement across Southeast Asia.
The most serious incident occurred on October 12, near Thitu Island in the Spratly archipelago, when a Chinese Coast Guard vessel 21559 rammed and fired water cannons at the Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources vessel BRP Datu Pagbuaya just 1.6 nautical miles from the island. The Philippine vessel sustained minor structural damage, though no crew members were injured.
Beijing claimed its Coast Guard had “expelled” Philippine ships that had “illegally intruded” near Sandy Cay and blamed Manila for what it called a “slight collision.” Chinese state media defended the CCG’s actions as “lawful and necessary” to protect national sovereignty and warned the Philippines against further “provocative intrusions.”
In late October, satellite imagery revealed that China deployed a new floating barrier blocking access to the lagoon at Scarborough Shoal, escalating tensions amid repeated confrontations in the South China Sea. For the first time, Chinese ships also issued radio warnings ordering Philippine vessels to stay out of what Beijing calls its “environmental reserve.”
These incidents are part of China’s broader campaign of coercion in the region, where the Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia routinely use water cannons, blocking maneuvers, and close intercepts to assert control over disputed waters. Such reckless tactics not only increase the risk of escalation but have even backfired, such as in August, when a CCG vessel collided with a PLA Navy destroyer while pursuing a Philippine patrol ship.
In reality, the Philippine ships were operating well within their country’s exclusive economic zone. Sandy Cay, a coral reef within the Spratly Islands, lies squarely inside the Philippines’ internationally recognized maritime territory.
Philippine Coast Guard Chief Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan said the confrontation “only strengthens” Manila’s resolve “to not surrender a square inch of our territory to any foreign power.”
At the ASEAN Summit on October 26, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. condemned “dangerous maneuvers and the coercive use of tools and equipment to interfere with or obstruct legitimate and routine Philippine activities” within Filipino maritime zones, though he stopped short of explicitly naming China.
The United States strongly condemned Beijing’s aggression and reaffirmed its defense commitments under the U.S.–Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. The State Department emphasized that Article IV of the 1951 treaty applies to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft, including Coast Guard vessels, anywhere in the South China Sea.
Australia, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the European Union also issued statements condemning China’s actions and expressing support for the Philippines.
The confrontation between China and Australia unfolded on October 19, when a Chinese Su-35 fighter jet released flares dangerously close to a Royal Australian Air Force P-8A Poseidon conducting routine maritime patrols near the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. The Chinese jet initially released flares from a safe distance, but twice deployed them perilously close to the Australian aircraft.
Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles condemned the incident as “unsafe and unprofessional,” saying it endangered Australian personnel and equipment, though no injuries or damage occurred. Canberra issued a formal diplomatic protest, while Beijing and Canberra traded accusations the following day.
China’s People’s Liberation Army claimed its Southern Theatre Command “drove away” the Australian aircraft, alleging it had “illegally intruded” into Chinese airspace and insisting that its forces “tracked, monitored, and warned” the aircraft in accordance with regulations. Beijing accused Australia of violating Chinese sovereignty, while rejecting Canberra’s version of events.
Australia maintained that its patrols were lawful and consistent with international law, urging China to operate safely and responsibly. This was not an isolated incident, Chinese jets have repeatedly deployed flares dangerously close to Australian surveillance aircraft, including encounters in February and May 2024.
China’s mounting aggression in the South China Sea is driven by overlapping territorial claims and competition for vast untapped resources, an estimated 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, claimed in part by Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. Beijing bases its sweeping claims on the so-called “nine-dash line,” rejecting the 2016 Hague tribunal ruling that invalidated Beijing’s claims under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Over the past decade, China has turned reefs and shoals across the Paracel and Spratly Islands into fortified military outposts with airstrips, radar stations, ports, and missile batteries. Its expansive interpretation of exclusive economic zones directly challenges international law guaranteeing freedom of navigation, prompting regular U.S. naval patrols and growing cooperation among regional partners. Japan has supported this effort by supplying patrol ships and defense equipment to the Philippines and Vietnam.
To counter Beijing’s aggression, the United States has deepened defense cooperation with the Philippines and Australia. At the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting in Kuala Lumpur on October 31, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro announced Task Force Philippines, a 60-member unit led by a one-star general to enhance deterrence and interoperability across the South China Sea. The initiative expands the 2024 Task Force Ayungin to cover the entire Philippine archipelago.
Joint exercises in 2025, including Balikatan and the Marine Aviation Support Activity, showcased increasing U.S.–Philippine integration. The U.S. Typhon missile system, capable of striking targets up to 1,500 kilometers away, was deployed in the Philippines for the first time. Sixteen nations joined the drills, and both countries agreed to conduct more than 500 military activities through 2026. The U.S. Army’s 25th Infantry Division also expanded operations in Northern Luzon, just 155 miles from Taiwan, amid rising fears of a cross-strait conflict.
In parallel, Australia has strengthened its role in the U.S. alliance network. In July 2025, the United Kingdom and Australia signed the Geelong Treaty, a 50-year framework to build SSN-AUKUS nuclear submarines. That same month, Exercise Talisman Sabre became Australia’s largest-ever war drill, involving 35,000 troops from 19 countries and the first test of its long-range Precision Strike Missile. President Trump reaffirmed America’s commitment to AUKUS in October, ending months of uncertainty.
By the end of 2025, joint U.S.–Australian naval exercises in the South China Sea and increased cooperation with New Zealand, set to double its defense spending, underscored a unified allied front against China’s regional expansion.
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